Flight Plans of Folly
On unforced strategic defeats.
I was on vacation and expecting to take the week off Substack, but Israel just started another war.
Submarines and Mines
According to family lore, the Bushnells on my mom’s side are descended from a Connecticut family of five children, one of whom was an inventor named David Bushnell. During the American Revolution this putative Uncle Dave invented the first floating mines (and coined the term “torpedoes”). He also devised mines on timers, mines that could explode underwater, and the first operational submarine, which he dubbed the Turtle.
I love the Turtle’s steampunk vibe and I think others do too. It’s certainly a popular subject for models and reconstructions. I stumbled on the one above in the lobby of the International Spy Museum in Washington, DC.
The only problem with the Turtle is, like all Uncle Dave’s inventions, it didn’t work. Not militarily which was the point. The Continental Army tested his gadgets during the Battle of Retreat from New York and the Philadelphia Campaign Retreat. While Uncle D figured out how to create a manned submarine that submerged, traveled underwater, and surfaced again—which is very impressive —the Turtle couldn’t actually sink enemy ships. His floating mines blew up the wrong targets or none at all. Bushnell's war efforts accomplished nothing beyond the morale boost of shocking one’s enemies.1
I’m not a military historian—military buffs might excoriate me for saying this—but the American Revolution was won by George Washington keeping an army in the field despite setback after setback while skillful diplomacy convinced France to lend a navy that pinned down a British Army at Yorktown.
This brought home to the British Treasury that the number of troops and ships necessary to pacify the Thirteen Colonies—even if they could find generals and admirals to use the troops and ships more effectively—was much greater than the taxes that could be raised from the Thirteen Colonies. Basically, America cost too much to rule by force. To their credit most of the leaders at that time understood this.
The Colonial army only invested minimal resources into gimcrack contrivances like my uncle’s. They tested these ideas—as well they should have—but always saw the bigger picture. The Americans avoided most major battles until the French signed on.2 That was smart.
The British after Yorktown were smart too. They weren’t willing to keep throwing good money after bad for the sake of pride or stubbornness. So they sued for peace.
The only leaders in that war who probably weren’t smart were our French saviors. King Louis XVI’s treasury at the time could not afford to help the Americans, but his administration did it anyway out of enthusiasm for America and ire at the Brits. Helping America without reforming the crown’s financial system to pay for it was a major cause of the bankruptcy that led to the French Revolution.3
The British could have defeated the revolutionaries if they’d acted a decade earlier but the solution wasn’t military; it was political. In the 1760s during the first wave of colonial discontent,4 they could have granted each colony some representatives to Parliament, knighted 20-30 Americans, and created a few baronies for those highest in the social order of Massachusetts and Virginia. This would have split the colonies between ruling classes and commoners, and given the upper classes more of a reason to side with the crown, hopes of knighthoods and baronies.
So if the British had been smarter earlier the Revolution never would have happened, and if the French had been smarter the Revolution likely would have failed. In either case world history would have taken a far different course.5
Why did King George and his ministers not act when the could have? Why do governments so often act too late?6 Why don’t leaders compromise or share power when it would benefit them?
For answers we can look to our the International Spy Museum raised by our own ruling classes in our nation’s capital featuring my uncle’s useless submarine decorating the lobby. You can know what’s important to any society by observing what they build. If our leaders today had been in charge of the Continental Army they would have thrown masses of money at the mines and the submarines, at spies and assassinations. They would have cheered each mild success as if it were glorious proof of their legitimacy and genius!
That’s what they do on the world stage now.
Oh What Tangled Webs We Weave
On June 1st, 2025 Ukraine carried out a covert drone attack on Russia called Operation Spider’s Web. With British assistance and American approval trucks entered Russia carrying hidden drones (unknown to the drivers). The trucks drove to five destinations across the continent ostensibly to ship goods. At a set time the drones flew out of the tops of trucks and attacked Russian military aircraft in five nearby air bases. The planes were strategic cruise missile carriers sitting on the tarmac, essential parts of Russia’s nuclear delivery system.
The Ukrainians and British celebrated and many in the U.S. did as well. Cool spy stuff! The Ukes and Brits claim they destroyed one fifth of Russia’s long-range air force crippling Russia’s nuclear fleet. (The Russians claim only 5 planes which is more realistic.)
However, this action was an unmitigated strategic defeat for the U.S. (and the U.K.). The reason those Russian planes were sitting out where drones could hit them was because Russia was abiding by nuclear non-proliferation treaties negotiated with us. These agreements require long-range aircraft to be in the open so our satellites could monitor numbers to verify that treaty obligations are being met. Russia needs nuclear weapons as a credible deterrent in its ongoing conflict with NATO. (A conflict mostly started by NATO btw.)
It should be obvious to anyone that attacking those planes in the open will encourage Russia to start keeping them in bunkers, which is bad for us, because we will have no way to monitor their nuclear delivery systems. And blowing up their older bombers that we know about means they’ll build new bombers that we won’t know anything about.
Of course Ukraine doesn’t care. They’ve been losing a war.7 Soon they’ll surrender and be forced to become a neutral power, their government in exile, their military dismantled. Ukrainian leaders trusted NATO and will meet utter ruin because of it, so why should they care about nuclear deterrence? I wouldn’t.
But why would the British and Americans go along with an unforced strategic setback? Why did we agree? For that matter why didn’t we embrace the treaty terms offered by Russia in Istanbul in the spring of 2022? What sensible person had any rational scenario by which Ukraine was going to get a better deal? And as for NATO’s interests, at that point Russia had been weakened—losing enough troops to make further military expansion unlikely for a decade—Sweden and Finland had joined NATO—a huge strategic gain—and American and British politicians could have thumped their chests and boasted of giving a black eye to the evil Ruskies. It cost little since in those early stages most of Ukraine’s equipment was second-hand stuff we didn’t need anyway. Why couldn’t we take yes for an answer? Instead we continued—and continue—to sanction Russia, isolate Russia, and force Russia to pull itself up by its own devices. In the process a Russia trapped as a weak player in the global system has been bullied into making itself a major economic, diplomatic, and military power.
The Cowardly Lion
But wherever there’s cruelty and mayhem that inflicts unforced strategic defeats on allies, Israel steps up and says, “You think that’s crazy and stupid; hold my beer!”
On June 13th, 2025 Israel carried out a massive Pearl Harbor-style attack on Iran called Operation Rising Lion. Having smuggled drones into Iran as had Ukraine into Russia, but with no declaration of war or legal right, and the United States actively in negotiations with Iran, Israel suddenly used cyberattacks and drones to disable Iran’s air defenses as planes bombed Iranian air bases, airports, and at least one nuclear facility while other drones murdered Iranian leaders. Truck bombs went off in civilian areas to add terror and confusion.
Trump initially claimed the U.S. had nothing to do with Israeli actions, but as soon as early reports proclaimed a knock-out blow, Trump—preening braggart to his core—declared the U.S. was in on it the whole time. He even boasted about Israel murdering one of the Iranian diplomats negotiating with the U.S.
In any case Iranian technicians were able to get air defense systems working within ten hours (with Russian help?) and Iran launched retaliatory drone and missile strikes at Israeli, hitting power plants, airports, and Israel’s major IDF command base, the Kirya. Strikes and counterstrikes are ongoing. It’s a full-fledged air war. Most Western media claim Israel is winning, but they said the same thing about Ukraine, didn’t they? Who knows?
Certainly Israel has the advantage. Although they used up their own munitions long ago inflicting collective punishment on Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria, Trump (and NATO countries unofficially) will continue to provide everything Israel needs—a ruinous overextension of our resources that even Louis XVI wouldn’t have countenanced. Meanwhile Iran’s help from China and Russia are far more limited, though Pakistan has said they will nuke anyone who nukes Iran.
Whatever Operation Rising Lion accomplishes for Israel, it has been a worse strategic defeat for the United States than Operation Spiderweb. Who is going to trust us in future negotiations? Even if an Iranian government were foolish enough to trust us, after suffering such an attack any leader that tried to negotiate would be overthrown.
How can the U.S., the country that defines itself by suffering the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, countenance supporting a dozen Pearl Harbors + assassinations at once? This is an event that will be remembered in Iran for centuries. It will be the justification for any surprise attack on Israel or the United States forever.
Israel claimed to be trying to slow down Iran’s nuclear weapons program—and Trump and the U.S. media has repeated that argument. Certainty most Israelis and their American apologists believe this. But Netanyahu surely doesn’t; he’s been claiming Iran was about to get a nuclear weapon for more than 30 years.8 I’ve never found a single non-pro-Israeli expert who claims Iran has ever had a real nuclear weapons program to speak of. Trump’s own intelligence agencies have said Iran does not have a nuclear weapons program to speak of. Maybe Trump was jealous of Bush and wanted a WMD scandal of his own.
What Israel actually hates about Iran is not any existential or strategic threat, but the constant tactical irritation of Iran supplying high tech missiles to the Houthis and Hezbollah, and low tech rockets to Hamas. That’s been the only issue. Ever. The only solution, as Iran has been clear for decades, is negotiation. Iran will stop supplying those groups when and if Israel agrees to a two-state solution with designated borders and a settlement of refugee issues. This is allegedly what all U.S. administrations up till now have officially supported too, what all Palestinian groups have supported, what all the Arab nations have supported, and what the United Nations has supported—only Israeli governments refuse to openly support two independent states. Right now Israeli leaders are probably hoping to dump millions of Palestinians in Southern Lebanon and Syria and Hezbollah prevents that.
Of course at this point, Israel—enabled by decades of Western-backed impunity—has become a rogue state, a fever dream of pure id. Neither Trump nor Israel have any realistic goals; they have no diplomacy, longterm military strategy, or endgame. The calculated cruelties of Israel’s former Labor Party Governments may have been just as morally wrong, but they had the excuse that they might have actually worked. The wanton destruction inflicted by the current monster progeny of Likud and the settlements serves no rational purpose at all.
Israel had many decades to negotiate with the Palestinians from a position of strength. Instead in the rare cases when an Israeli leader didn’t choose the boot heel to the face, they were assassinated or voted out of office. Israel is currently at war with the Palestinians (which are half of its own citizens/subjects), Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and now Iran. Even the countries that are not at war with Israel now—Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia—all will make claims on Israeli territory in ten years, twenty years, or a fifty years—whenever the U.S. no longer can bankroll and defend Israel.9 Israel will be gone in eighty years. Perhaps a lot less.
As far as Iran, it’s the ultimate self-fulfilling prophecy. The Iranians will start developing a nuclear weapons program now. Wouldn’t you? After all, the West isn’t constantly attacking Pakistan or North Korea. Meanwhile if their government is threatened, they have said they will shut down the Strait of Hormuz, which will not only spike oil prices, but disrupt a great deal of other shipping. It’s common sense that a government in power, especially an autocratic regime that could face death if it loses power, would be willing to destroy the world to avoid losing power. So why wouldn’t they close the Strait of Hormuz? If Iran is defeated, they’ll dig deeper and try again. What choice to they have?
So we’ve driven Iran, Russia, and China into an alliance, and forced Russia to become a great power; now we’ll make Iran a great power too.
SNAFU & FUBAR
One of the strangest aspects of the International Spy Museum was the utter lack of discussion of legality or practicality. When is espionage beneficial? When does it backfire? When if efver should governments violate international law? For that matter what is international law? Instead it’s just room after room celebrating cool gadgets and tricks, betrayals and surprises, disguises and assassinations. It would have been middle-school me’s paradise. We all have a code names now. We all have secret missions.
There are factions that strive to promote equality, political rights, and a decent life for everyone. Sometimes they win and sometimes they lose. Other factions strive for a world of relentless competition and permanent hierarchy in which a few at the top live in perpetual celebration. Sometimes they win and sometimes they lose. Right now they’re winning. Unfortunately, when these factions win for too long the world goes into the abyss. Unfortunately, when there hasn’t been an abyss quite often the abyss drivers can win over those in neither faction too.
The reason WWIII is suddenly possible again is because those old enough to witness WWII first-hand are gone. The reason why a holocaust in Gaza is possible is because those who remember the Nazi Holocaust are gone. Our media was less deceitful in the past because too many readers had personal experiences through which to judge reporters, and that kept media honest. Survivors of the Battle of the Bulge or the Battle of Midway weren’t going to automatically trust what governments said or did (These were the generations who introduced SNAFU and FUBAR as slang.) but also weren’t going to automatically dismiss what governments could accomplish (These were patriotic generations as well). Now all we have is stories and ambition.
America could have stopped Israel with a phone call.
But high-five, bro, isn’t it cool the submarine works!
Thanks for reading Blame Cannon! For the next couple of months I’ll circle between a series on global warming in prehistory, a story about coal, and a series of true stories about departures and goodbyes.
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His mines led to a snarky ballad called “The Battle of the Kegs.”
As in a maze he stood to gaze,
The truth can’t be deny’d, Sir;
He spy’d a score of kegs, or more,
Come floating down the tide, Sir!
This doesn’t mean the Continental forces opted for true guerilla warfare. Washington’s subordinate and would-be rival Charles Lee wanted to go that route, but Washington for various reasons wanted to maintain something approximating a European army.
Both Britain and France went heavily into debt during the Seven Years War. Britain tried to dig its way out by taxing America, effectively causing the American Revolution. France needed to act forcefully to tax the nobility and/or church, but instead flailed around for decades under Louis XV and then Louis XVI. Helping America while not addressing its budget problems was the issue, not helping America per se. Also France was unlucky with some harvests.
There was a much earlier wave of discontent known as Bacon’s Rebellion in 1675, but that’s another story.
Not only did the American Revolution cause the French Revolution by driving the French crown into bankruptcy, for which King Louis fatefully summoned the Estates General,
but also, in tandem with King George’s subsequent insanity, created the modern British Constitution in which the Prime Minister, not the British monarch, is the chief executive. On a national stage if the Democrats had embraced Medicare for All, and a few other reforms we wouldn’t have the homelessness crisis, or Donald Trump today.
There’s a grim spectacle in NYC now of the elite, which has utterly neglected the rising cost of living in the city for decades, suddenly finding that a Muslim Democratic Socialist might become the next mayor, forcing the powers that be to back Andrew Cuomo, a rapist, charlatan, and all around scumbag. If they had just conceded a little reform to the masses the Muslim Democratic Socialist wouldn’t have any traction. So now they’re going to try to sandbag the election.
After beating back the 2022 Russian invasion they could have had a peace but the US and Britain intervened. The West wanted the war to go on, to further weaken Russia.
Benjamin Netanyahu first claimed Iran was 3-5 years from nuclear weapons in 1992.
Egypt and Jordan have Palestinian refugees from various Israeli wars that have very legitimate claims on Israeli territory. Saudi Arabia, claiming to be first among Muslim nations, has no legitimate claim, but will certainly invent one to get in on the action. Of course agreements like Trump’s putative Abraham Accords won’t be woth the paper they’re printed on as soon as America turns on Israel. Everything Israel has been doing in Gaza will be playing nightly on televisions across the Middle East as Netanyahu’s Arab counterparts order their armies to do the same.